Episode 01
Speculation
|
 Episode
01 Title Analysis
"I Can Forgive Her, but I Don't Have to Because She
Screwed with My Chickens"
During the first scene of the episode, the Survivors are
seen sitting around on a ship with lots of supplies.
They are probably going to get an opportunity to take
back as many items as they can to camp. The
reference to chickens is likely one of the items the
Survivors may be able to bring back to camp, as seen to
the image on the right. The Asian tribe appears to have
a chicken in the background in this
screenshot.
If this is the case, then someone from this
tribe probably got into some sort of tiff over the
chickens with someone else from another tribe. Our gut
tells us Jenny was involved in this chicken incident. |
|
|
|
Tribe Names
 About the
Immunity Idol
We
have seen on previews that the immunity idol
come out into individual pieces. The only question is,
how many pieces? From a structural standpoint, we can see a
division of head and body, but the third division would be
the legs or the hanging appendage which wouldn't be much of
a piece. The last time we saw a Survivor with 20 people, 2
were not chosen to be in the game, and 1 was booted from the
game. At this point, it wouldn't seem out of the question if
only two tribes were immune in the first episode, while two
tribes make the dreadful trek to Tribal Council - but two
Tribal Councils in one episode is surely a lot to take in
(probably something done later on in the game). At this
point, we speculate in favor for only one tribe voting a
member out.
|
Reward/Immunity Challenge
 |
 |
|
The Survivors hear more about the challenge as Jeff
explains how it will work it. Take note of the apparatus
behind them, this will be key for them to win the
challenge. |
The Survivors must race over these mounds of sands to
the shore, where their boat (assembly may be required)
awaits them. They must paddle out to shore and retrieve
more paddles and/or a torch. |
 |
This image provided by TV Guide is very telling. Not
only do we know the relative placing of the tribes at
this leg of the race, Aitutaki slightly ahead of
Rarotonga, but we also know that the Manihiki tribe is
in a lot of danger. If you notice, the tribes are rowing
with four paddles, with one person holding the torch. If
you notice, there is a yellow barrel in the ocean with
two remaining paddles. So, it is likely the tribes only
start with two paddles at shore, and must row themselves
out to the ocean to get two more paddles. Because (1)
Manihiki isn't even seen close to their station, (2)
added to the fact they have not assembled their ladder
(the last part of this challenge) shown above (instead,
they are looking at Rarotonga to figure out how to put
it together), and (3) rowing doesn't seem to be their
strong point (look
at image here) we have reason to believe
they lose. |
In this image, the Rarotonga's ladder is assembled, and
the Manihiki tribe is no longer working but likely
listening to Jeff explain what happens from this point.
Reaction shots are always telling, and they do NOT look
happy at all = challenge losers. |
|
|
Possible Exile
Candidates |
 Truedorktimes
posted at Survivor Sucks regarding his belief that Jonathan
is the first exiled Survivor. The evidence that points to
this is that there is a shot of the Rarotonga with fire
(most likely post challenge) with Jonathan missing from the
shot, while Puka Pukua and Aitutaki both have all five
members accounted for. Also take a look at the sequence of
pictures below.
The first image talks of a loser choosing, perhaps the
losing tribe which we have speculated to be Manihiki gets to
choose someone to exile (also a tip that TDT received about
the first exile). Nathan is seen pointing to someone from
Rarotonga, perhaps Jonathan who was shown leading the tribe
at building the ladder during the challenge. In the last
sequence, Jonathan is seen without his tribe, and looking
disappointed.
   |
Possible Boot
Candidates |
     |
|
The tribal makeup of this tribe is 3 female and 2 males,
clearly putting the males at risk of an all female alliance.
However, if the first challenge is an indication of what is
to come, the females may be less inclined of getting rid of
the males if they are needed for physical challenges in the
future. If things are going to be split along age lines,
Nathan is the most in trouble being the youngest, and Sekou
being the oldest.
However, it will likely come down to who either (1) rubs the
rest of the tribe the wrong way (2) whoever makes the
most desperate attempt at staying in the game or (3)
challenge liability. Something
makes us believe that Stephannie is the one that assumes
role #1, making her the first boot of Cook Islands. If not
Stephannie, it could be Rebecca struggling at rowing that
could make her a candidate.
Of
course, this may change as we near closer to the premiere,
but Stephannie is our best guess at this point. |
|
