What a premiere! I absolutely loved it, and I cannot wait for this week’s episode. A lot of fascinating people, good storylines, and a whole lot of drama. Anyways, the title this week seems to indicate rough conditions, which is directed at the Manihiki tribe, per Stephannie in the preview, and a weak link, which is directed to
Aitutaki, namely Billy, who apparently is extremely lazy.

It’s unclear as to whether there is a reward challenge or not this week. TDT believes that it’s the “SOS” challenge, which it could be, and it would explain the Rarotonga cheering picture. So, if there is one, we know at least that Rarotonga wins, probably Aitutaki as well, considering we see Billy eating what looks like
chicken.

Since the Immunity Challenge looks hard to predict, I’ll outline the dynamics and the drama on each tribe before getting to the Immunity Challenge.

MANIHIKI: If they happened to lose again, there are several options. Nathan and Stephannie could try and tie it up, or one of them could align with Rebecca and Sundra and try to get the other out. I’m not sure exactly what would go down, but I think Sundra and Rebecca would be safe, because a tie is a big risk this early in the game.

RAROTONGA: The elements on this tribe could allow it to go down many different ways as well. Adam and Candice have been coupled together, so the tribe could align with or against them. Jessica has pointed herself out as an outcast, however, that may just be editing, I think she’s safer than she leads to believe. If the others were to align against Adam and Candice, they’d clearly boot Candice because she could contribute less. If Parvati aligns with Adam and Candice (since she seems to be the middle woman), Jessica or Jonathan could be targeted, based on edit, I’d have to go with Flica Flame getting snuffed.

AITUTAKI: It appears that some of them, especially Ozzy, wants to throw the challenge this week. Whether it happens or not, Billy looks to be the main target. Of course, with Cristina’s comment, Ozzy’s disloyalty could turn around and bite him in the ass. The same thing could be said to potentially end up booting Cristina if
Ozzy turns it around, though that seems unlikely.

PUKA PUKA: If they lose, it seems pretty obvious Cao Boi would be the boot, Jenny or Becky could get the boot if something crazy happens, but at this point, Cao Boi is slated as the first to go, he just “doesn’t fit” as he stated himself.

Onto the Immunity Challenge… it’s hard to really tell what is going on, however, Puka and Raro appear ahead. We see pictures of Hiki and Raro celebrating. It’s not a definite, but it seems to look like Aitu lost this one, which isn’t a surprise according to the fact that they apparently threw the challenge.

The exile, it could be anyone, but the stronger men are in the most danger. If Aitu gets to pick, I assume maybe they’d go after Puka, who appears to be the strongest tribe. I’m guessing Yul is exiled.

It’s not a definite that Aitu loses, but it seems like the most probable possibility. As for the romance revealed at Tribal Council, I’ve gone through every scenario and I’m still puzzled. Rumor says it’s JP and Cecilia, though I don’t see shock value in that. Anyways, I think the ‘misdirection’ of the Billy boot, was a ‘misdirection’ itself. I’m guessing ‘dead weight’ Billy is sent home.

Anyways, I think the ‘misdirection’ of the Billy boot, was a ‘misdirection’ itself.

Wow, I am so torn about this week. After the first boot was practically missed by the entire spoiler/Survivor community, it seems like it will only get harder from here.

At this moment I have some sort of feeling that Puka and Raro is safe. What goes against my Raro pick to be safe is this hoopla surrounding a shocking romance at Tribal Council which I think involves Adam and Candice. But then again, because I don't consider them shocking by any means, they are probably safe. Add that to the fact that Puka and Raro are shown leading in the immunity challenge - and you have the two tribes that are safe this episode.

Hiki losing again isn't out of the ordinary. The challenge looks to be tough on the Survivors, and three women and 1 men may be a detriment from a physical standpoint if the other tribes have at least combinations of 3 men 1 women or 2 men 2 women. However, the women of Hiki might be able to pull it together for the puzzle portion of the obstacle course. The focus hasn't been on them in the promos, so they are likely to be safe.

That brings us to Aitu. In the promos, we have been led to believe that they will actually throw the immunity challenge to boot Billy. So misdirection is something you are probably saying in response to that statement. Well I say, we have been handed the boot but refuse to believe it. He is shown participating in the challenge - probably a bit odd if you plan to throw a challenge to have the person to take the fall participating, but it's happened before (Silas anyone?). In any case, he'll suck in the challenge and will make the rest of the tribe feel more justified to getting rid of him. As for this romance, that probably is the misdirection part - it probably won't amount to anything.

... we have been handed the boot but refuse to believe it.

Ok, so the wait is over and it’s in the books – Survivor: Cook Islands premiered last week to the lowest ratings the show has had since Season 1 (before it took off).  What’s that tell us?  Either that people aren’t as interested in Survivor anymore or that the whole “Divide tribes based on race” thing wasn’t really as big of a deal as it was hyped to be.  As for me, it was interesting but it’s Survivor and I don’t care who they put on it so long as it’s a good and entertaining season.  Last week showed us the differences between the four tribes and, in somewhat of a surprise, Sekou was sent packing.

As for this week, what changes or surprises are in store for us?  Well…it’s a bit tough to say but it looks like Cao Boi might be wearing out his welcome and Jessica might be doing the same on her tribe.  Sorry, but when you let two chickens out of the coop and four of your tribemates are starving, you’ve got to do precisely what you can to keep in their good graces.  As for the tribes, it looks like they’ll remain separated by race at least one more episode and it’ll be interesting to see once they merge, how it’s done.  I have to say that I’m liking Puka and Aitu as far as tribe dynamics go.  On Raro, the only one I really like is Jonathan, who at this point in time is my favorite castaway.  I think Jonathan will have a lot of interesting comments and it looks like he’s someone you don’t want on your bad side.  Anyway, onto the challenges…

Or should I say “Challenge”?  Jeff Probst told the media that there would be more combined reward/immunity challenges this season and what better way to do those than with four tribes?  Essentially it keeps the top three tribes safe with the third place having a member exiled by the tribe going to Tribal Council.  Hey, all’s fair in love and Survivor right?  This appears to be an obstacle course and to be honest I have no idea who wins and who loses, I’m taking a total stab in the dark here and I’ll say that Raro loses and Jessica “Flica” Flame is sent packing.  Personally I liked Courtney better anyway.

Sorry, but when you let two chickens out of the coop and four of your tribemates are starving, you’ve got to do precisely what you can to keep in their good graces.