The new season is upon us and we’re once again greeted with twenty castaways, the first (and only) time they’ve had this many since “Survivor: Palau” in which three were sent packing in the first episode.  Unless you’ve been living in a cave the last month or so, you’ll notice that these folks are going to be divided based on the color of their skin (or a more P.C. term would be “race”).  We’ve all weighed in on that, so check out our thoughts on that over at the Roundtable.

I’ve purposely tried to avoid any spoilers this time around because, well, I would rather be surprised as to who gets voted off as opposed to know the Final Two when the first episode starts.  Then again, I don’t think that many spoilers are out there this season so it should work out pretty well (for me, at least).  Just like last season, we’re starting off with four tribes (except this time around each tribe has an extra member) and naturally the first challenge will be a joint reward/immunity challenge.  I was fortunate enough to sit in on the Media Conference Call with Jeff Probst last week and he assures us that we’ll be seeing a lot of these reward/immunity challenges.  That’s a good thing as there’ll be a lot more riding on these challenges and we’ll also use the time they’d show doing a reward challenge, to get to know the contestants more.

This particular challenge shows the four tribes going over several obstacles, assembling their boats and being the first to light fire.  And as everyone knows, fire represents life,etc.  I’m a member of the MESS hall on Survivor Sucks and the point of that is that we take the promos for the show (broadcast on television) and break them down sometimes frame by frame, to decipher what will happen in the next episode.  We’re not always right, but this time around it looks as if it’s a dead lock as to which tribe will lose the reward and immunity.  It would seem that the Manihiki (African American) tribe does finish in last and will therefore have to vote out one of their own.  I’m also thinking that they might get to select someone to Exile, but it’s a crapshoot as to how it will work and I’m not about to speculate on that until I see at least one episode to see how it’s handled.

So we’ve got Manihiki going to TC and who will they vote off?  I will say that I’ve heard the first Tribal Council is “strange”.  Take that for what you will, but “strange” on “Survivor” is something to be taken seriously.  You’ve got three women and two men and it would be easy for the women to gang up on the guys and vote one of them out.  The question is, would that be a wise decision?  Traditionally, the weaker ones are the first ones out but with automatic tribes of five, it raises the question.  Personally I think one of the women would be a more logical choice and I’m looking at Stephanie to be the first one out.  Why?  No idea.  Either Rebecca or Sundra would be a logical choice, but keep the guys around at least a few episodes; you never know when you might need brute strength.

So there you have it, no comment on who will get exiled and one of the women from Manihiki will be taking that dreaded first walk of shame.  My how I love this show!

Personally I think one of the women would be a more logical choice...

It's been awhile since I've had that excitement for a Survivor season to get started. I really hope that the controversial decision of dividing the tribes by race makes the show explore some interesting themes that will get old and new viewers to tune in. Nonetheless, its the characters that we are after and hopefully a more diverse cast will offer this.

The first boot is always a toss up for me. We've gone from Sonja, Debb, Diane, Peter, John, Ryan, Nicole, Tina, Brook, Jolanda, Jim and Tina. You will probably have a difficult time remembering what  each of them look like. But you will probably remember what got them booted in the first place. There are those that were too bossy, too weak in challenges, and those that schemed way too early. Thanks to our speculation, we have a good feeling that the Manihiki tribe (yellow/African American tribe) will lose the immunity challenge. So what role will each of the first boot potentials possess that echo the same mistakes of other first booted Survivors?

At this point, Stephannie looks like she is most in trouble. Not only does she give off this first boot vibe, but I can see how she can position herself to be seen as a weaker member of the tribe (especially during the tribe), and also, distance herself from the others. If this is a social game, it is important to get yourself out there and interact with others, to at least see where you are positioned in their eyes. I can see that she will ignore this aspect and in the end, it will spell doom. Most are speculating that because there are three females on this tribe, they will gain up on the male. But after losing your first immunity challenge, which could be devastating, it might cause these women to think in the long term, which would mean keeping the men in the event a physical challenge arises in the future. For this tribe, you could really make a case for each of them leaving, but I'll go with Stephannie for now.

For this tribe, you could really make a case for each of them leaving...

Hello there! I’m back and it’s time for a new season of Survivor. Woot! And there’s been a lot of press, media and good news about Survivor Cook Islands, and this season seems promising. It’s starting off with the exciting racial divide. How will it be portrayed, you might ask? Well… considering this is a big network, it’s probably very tastefully done. There may be a bit of, not racial slurs, but racial pride cheers and such. It’s going to be amazing, I know it.

Anyways, onto the episode… Apparently the marooning is much like in season one when they just had a boat full of supplies and they have 1 minute to get what they can and jump off the boat and go paddle to their camps. It should be fun to get some of the essence of the first season back into the show; it’s been lacking elements from the earlier seasons. So once they get to their camps, the typical making fire, shelter and getting water will probably be partially aired. It’s rumored that there are a lot of combined RC/IC’s this season, which gives us more camp time, which I appreciate personally… I like that better than watching somewhat repetitive challenges.

Any drama? Well… the episode title seems to involve some drama. My personal thought is based on the persona I’ve seen from Cao Boi… I think he’s very possessive, and he’s mentioned that to him it’s “my way or the highway”. So I’m thinking he made this comment, probably about Jenny. It could be Becky though. Or I could be way off base, we’ll see.

So… the Immunity Challenge seems to be an obstacle course. Big surprise there. Looks like they’ll be assembling boats, climbing walls, rowing boats and running through sand. From the speculation vidcaps, it does look like Aitutaki, Puka Puka and Rarotonga are ahead of Manihiki in most or all of the vidcaps. In addition, the dejected picture pretty much makes in obvious that they’ll be the losers in this round.

Apparently, the losing tribe gets to send someone to Exile Island… so do they get to join Cirie, Aras and Danielle? :P I know… I hope it’s not as lame this year, I hated the exiling. Based on vidcaps, it looks like Jonathan is separate from his tribe, so… based on that and what TDT has said, I will predict Jonathan will be exiled.

Then onto Tribal Council… the men are at a disadvantage with the sexes, however… anything could happen. Nathan is a physical attribute, Sekou is the tribe elder. My thought would be that the younger people (Sundra, Rebecca, and Nathan) would align and go after either Stephannie or Sekou. Something about Stephannie screams first boot… so I will go with her for the first boot of Survivor Cook Islands.

My thought would be that the younger people (Sundra, Rebecca, and Nathan) would align and go after either Stephannie or Sekou.