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SPECULATION |
| Episode 1:
The First Exile |
Episode Title Analysis:
Nothing of substance here, we just know someone is going to be
exiled on the premiere episode.
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CBS Teasers:
N/A
Zap2It Article:
For its 12th installment, "Survivor" is returning to the number
of contestants -- 16 -- it used in its first several seasons,
and it's headed back to Panama, site of the "Pearl Islands"
season. But little else about the start of the game will be the
same.
For starters,
the contestants, who range in age from 24 to 58 and include a
retired astronaut, a yoga instructor and a logging-sports
promoter and performer, will be divided into four tribes of four
in the first episode -- older men, older women, younger men and
younger women. Then there's the big wrinkle that gives this
season its name: "Survivor: Panama -- Exile Island."
During each
episode, at least one player will be banished to "Exile Island,"
a mini-Elba miles away from the team camps. In addition to being
removed from the group dynamics of the game, exiles will have to
fend for themselves while on the island. There is, however, a
hidden immunity idol on the island that they can use at a future
tribal council.
In the premiere,
scheduled for Thursday, Feb. 2 (the first night of February
sweeps), the four tribes will start off with a reward challenge,
with the losing team having to decide which of its members is
banished. That person will then have to compete solo in the
first immunity battle.
The four
tribes will become two in the show's second episode. Jeff
Probst, newly signed to stay with "Survivor" through the game's
16th installment, returns as host.
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Tribal Division |
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By
now, we know that the tribes will be split along age and gender
lines. The above comprises of the four tribes we will see on the
first episode.
Because this image
to the left has one representative per tribe competing in something,
we believe this is for some kind of perk such as which camp they get
to live at, or something along those lines. The reason we believe
this is the case is because exiled Survivors are just chosen to be
banished if they are on the losing tribe during the reward
challenge, they don't necessarily compete to stay within the tribe.
In addition, it seems that the 'strongest' of each tribe were chosen
to compete in this mini-challenge. |
 "The sixteen new castaways will be divided into tribes in a way
never before seen." The image of the number of boats in the
promo are leading some to believe there will be more than just
two tribes.
Here are how previous tribes were divided on
the premiere episode.
Season 1-4, 7, 11: Handpicked by
production to be into two tribes
Season 5, 10: Individual
players determined the tribal makeup
Season 6, 9:
Tribes were divided into men and women
Season 8: Split up
into three tribes
Here are some random thoughts as to
how the tribes could possibly be divided this time around.
-
The individual Survivors may compete in a challenge that will
determine which tribe they will be on, whether it be two tribes,
three, or more. Speculation is highly circulating around the
prospect of having three tribes.
- The Survivors are somehow split
into 5 tribes of 3, with the person not 'picked' or 'chosen'
being sent to exile island. After the immunity challenge, the
exile person returns to the tribe that lost a person. This,
however, doesn't seem likely as it gives the tribe that just
loss a reward in terms of numbers.
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Exile Island |
 Jeff Probst on KCBS News
tonight after the Reunion show:
"The next Survivor has a great twist. We have an island called Exile
Island, and the idea was: every week we're going to send one survivor on
their own to exile. So, not only will you have to be on this island
having to deal with the rain, and the bugs, and no food, you're away
from camp, which is where the game is played. And the flipside is...is
that somewhere hidden out there is hidden immunity idol.
So while you're out there trying to endure the conditions, you're
digging around trying to find this thing.
And it turned out to be a
great
twist."
Zap2It:
During each episode, at least one player will be banished to "Exile
Island," a mini-Elba miles away from the team camps. In addition to
being removed from the group dynamics of the game, exiles will have
to fend for themselves while on the island. There is, however, a
hidden immunity idol on the island that they can use at a future
tribal council.
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Reward
Challenge:
We
know the tribes begin as four tribes of four as we have known
for a while now. It seems the race is reward, and it is nothing
more than a footrace. Each tribe picks a competitor: Ruth Marie
for Casaya, Danielle for Bayoneta, Terry for La Mina and Austin
for Vivero. Ruth Marie is a marathon runner, and is unlikely to
loose this footrace, not to mention the fact that smoke from a
fire is visible in two photos of the
Casaya camp, so they probably get first (or perhaps second) in
the challenge. Terry, Austin and Danielle are all pretty
athletic, but reports that Terry kicks ass in challenges seem to
convince us that he also doesn't come in last. It comes down to
Austin and Danielle. However, due to the vidcaps we've seen back
at camp, all Casaya members are present, as well as all Vivero
and La Mina members. One member of Bayoneta is suspiciously
absent in many photos, Misty. Because of this, it seems likely
that Bayoneta lost the Reward Challenge, and thus Misty is
exiled until the Immunity Challenge, we presume.
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Immunity
Challenge:
The
challenge is obviously called four by four, because there are
four tribes competing against each other, for the first time
ever. It seems as though the castaways must first swim out to
their crate, perhaps to build a boat in order to get back. We
see Nick jumping off the platform in the promo, so maybe
something needs to be retrieved from the triangular platform as
well. They must than carry their rafts back onto the beach, and
as we see Aras is doing, something is being done with ropes.
It's possible that the rafts are tied to ropes and dragged
across the finish line. The giant T-shaped poles probably have
some purpose in finishing the race, most likely used to reel in
the boat, or something to that affect, before the tribes cross
their respective finish lines.
The picture of La Mina and Casaya on their rafts in the water
seems to be after the challenge. Everyone looks spent and they
are just relaxing. T
he fact that Bayoneta and Vivero
are nowhere in sight bodes well for them, perhaps they finished
already. However, why would the challenge be over if not all
tribes have finished. It's also possible that both of these
teams have finished, and are waiting on one of the other tribes
to lose? Dan and Bruce don't look too happy, and neither does
Tina (from the back), but as we know those shots are misleading,
and they just competed in a grueling race. What's more telling
is during the challenge, La Mina seems to be the only tribe in
sight while rowing, perhaps they are in last. However, it was
said that a woman is first to go, so it's almost impossible to
determine who won, except for Vivero, who seems an unlikely
candidate to lose and has nothing against them in the challenge
footage.
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Possible Boot
Candidates:
We still are unable to determine which tribe is going to Tribal
Council.
For now, however, we might as well go with Wickchix's tip that a
woman is booted first.
On Bayoneta, Misty is definitely in danger, especially if she
was exiled before, it'd make it even easier to vote her out.
Sally is another possibility, but her knowledge of the game
should keep her around. On Casaya, Melinda is a definite
possibility for an early boot. If Ruth Marie wins them reward,
it's unlikely she'll go home. Tina is a possibility as well, but
not a very likely one. And we know Cirie is safe for awhile.
If a man does
go, it's likely to be Dan, who is not said to make it far under
any circumstances and has some pretty grim reactions at the
Immunity Challenge. It's no guarantee, but if the La Mina tribe
does vote, it's almost certain that he is gone. Right now, Misty
seems most likely, but anything can happen. |
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